Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $48,519$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(3.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,833.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(50,833.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,594$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(370 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,831.5}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,831.5\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,349$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $213,435$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{211,957.3}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(211,957.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $24,543$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,689.0}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(23,689.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $76,842$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $205,463$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{202,663.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(202,663.9\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,967$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,765.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,765.2\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $101,551$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $172,481$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(6.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,092.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(185,092.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,842$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,077.1}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,077.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $144,780$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $167,299$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,369.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(179,369.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $24,410$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,422.0}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(24,422.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $92,509$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $39,512$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(3.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,505.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(41,505.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,811$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(345 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,924.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,924.0\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,576$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $21,092$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(905 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,537.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 47.9)}}\) (asimptote \(25,537.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,586$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,957.1}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,957.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,501$ on 2020-04-30
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $20,612$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(782 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,026.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(23,026.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,232$ on 2020-04-30
Best fit exponential: \(23.2 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,764.7}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,764.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,994$ on 2020-04-30